With the regular season over, it’s time for lottery teams to get serious about preparing for next year. That process begins with the 2025 WNBA Draft Lottery, scheduled for later this year. With University of Connecticut guard Paige Bueckers expected to be the No. 1 overall pick, the lottery will be extremely important.
This year’s candidates are the Los Angeles Sparks, Chicago Sky, Dallas Wings, and Washington Mystics. However, only three of them can win the first-round pick. The Sky have agreed to exchange their first-round pick with the Wings in a trade for Marlena Mabry this year, so if they win the lottery, the first-round pick will go to the Wings.
The trade gives the Wings the first pick if either the team wins the lottery. Their combined probability (45.4%) makes the Wings slightly more likely to get the first pick than the Sparks (44.2%). The last time Dallas had the top pick was in 2021, when the team selected Texan Charlie Collier.
As a reminder, the WNBA calculates lottery odds based on their overall performance over the past two seasons. Let’s take a look at the lottery teams and their chances of winning the first overall pick.
NOTE: The Wings and Sky finished the past two seasons with identical records of 31-49, but the Wings have the second-best odds due to a tiebreaker based on worst record from the “last season.” The Wings are 9-31 this season, while the Sky are 13-27.
Los Angeles Sparks
25-55
44.20%
Dallas Wings
31-49
27.60%
Chicago Sky
31-49
17.80%
Washington Mystics
33-47
10.40%
The Sparks have been in the draft lottery for four straight years, the longest streak in franchise history. They laid a solid foundation for the latest iteration of their rebuild with the lottery acquisitions of Cameron Brink and Rekea Jackson this year, but Brink tore his ACL in June and missed most of the season. The Sparks really need a lead guard to pair with the duo, and Bueckers is a perfect fit.
No team has been more unlucky this season than the Wings. Serious injuries before the Olympic break sidelined Satou Sabally, Natasha Howard and Maddie Siegrist for extended periods, and they never recovered. But landing the No. 1 pick would make a long summer worth it. With only three players on the roster guaranteed money for next season, they could be forced into a major reset. Bueckers would be a great place to start.
For the Sky, a promising start to the season was quickly clouded after the Olympic break by trades and injuries. They have some exciting young players in Angel Reese, Camila Cardozo and Shenedy Carter, but the front office has a lot of work to do to build a successful team around them. Bueckers would have been a great fit, but short-sighted moves by the previous administration have thwarted that possibility. Still, another lottery pick would help.
There may be no team more in need of a true star rookie than the Mystics. The Mystics have had a bit of bad luck with injuries and untimely departures in recent years. The Mystics have some very solid, hard-working role players and some intriguing young players, but Bueckers would be a cornerstone piece for the future. Unfortunately, the Mystics only have a 10.4% chance of landing the top pick.
The 2025 WNBA Draft won’t be able to match this year’s class in terms of star power or depth, but it’s not a one-player draft either. There are plenty of intriguing names besides Bueckers, including USC’s Kiki Iliaphene, LSU’s Aneesa Morrow, Notre Dame’s Olivia Miles and Bueckers’ college teammate Aji Fudd.