When the Baltic countries break away from the Russian grid, they are braces for retaliation

The Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have completed their long-awaited decoupling from the Russian power grid and are preparing themselves for sabotage and cyberattacks this weekend.

The Baltic countries will be completely disconnected from the Moscow-controlled “Brell” energy network on Saturday before completing connections with the European power system on Sunday.

The move is seen as an important way to strengthen the electricity system, ensure energy independence and security, and to dismantle the remains of the Soviet era that have stitched together the Baltic States to Russia.

Saturday morning,

Gert Auväärt, head of Estonia’s Cybersecurity Centre, told CNBC he is working closely with his cybersecurity domain neighbors to prepare for potential risk scenarios when decoupling occurs.

“The transition is thoroughly planned, and experts have rated the possibility of serious problems as low. However, Russia may try to misuse this period to create uncertainty. “He said he commented in an email on Thursday.

“Thanks to strong domestic and international cooperation, Estonia is well prepared for the worst-case scenario, but this does not mean that such a threat will come to fruition,” he said. I added.

Whether Russia is an acronym that refers to the 2001 agreement to synchronize the power grid, a belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, remains unanswered. is.

However, the possibility of retaliation from Russia has been taken seriously by Baltic Energy Ministries and transmission system operators such as Estonia’s state-run grid operator Elering.

“They are ready and ready for asynchronous,” Elering director Kalle Kilk said in a statement Thursday that “in terms of scale and complexity, the process “is a matter of recent energy history.” This is a unique initiative among the participants. “

“Major technical changes always involve certain risks, but we have thoroughly analyzed them and developed appropriate action plans. With planned migrations, average power consumers will be able to change You shouldn’t notice it.”

“But what we can’t predict 100% is the situation where energy is used as a weapon. So what’s dangerous is that we have been preparing for this for many years, but have been connected, and we are so disconnected from Russia. That’s not what it is. To the Russian power system,” Kirk said.

CNBC is seeking comment from the Kremlin and the Russian Energy Ministry and is waiting for a response.

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined the European Union in 2004 and changed the dialing of their national relations with Russia indefinitely.

Since then, the state has been trying to align its electrical network with the rest of the EU. The Bloc has provided a grant of 1.2 billion euros ($1.24 billion) to the same time, which is considered a strategic priority.

The urgency over decoupling has accelerated after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with the conflict likely to face similar Russian attacks in the future among other former Soviet republics, including Baltic Science. It spurred fear.

Continuing use of Soviet-era energy infrastructure in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia was also considered a major source of unrest, with concerns that Russia could freely destroy its electricity supply.

The Baltic countries are seen as “frontline” with Russia and its allies (Latvia has borders with both and Estonia crosses the border with Russia, while Lithuania is Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad (The exclusive and frontier share the exclusive). From cyberattacks to interference with power and communications cables under the Baltic Sea, they have been targeted for “hybrid” threat activities.

Ober Alto, Estonia, cyberattacks against Estonia surged after a full-scale invasion in Ukraine in 2022.

“These ranged from hacktivist-led DDO (Drop-Rejection) attacks to more sophisticated and targeted operations on government agencies and businesses. Hostile cyber activity is a given event. to determine whether it is related to or linked to some of the broader strategies,” he pointed out.

Despite the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, planned decoupling from Russia over 30 years later is important and symbolic, as Baltics and Russian energy systems remain linked together. is.

“The moves by the three Baltic countries are the culmination of billions of euros of efforts to remove critical energy infrastructure from Soviet-era networks. This is seen as a source of anxiety. Risk consultancy Teneo, a risk consultant. Eastern Europe advisor said he commented in an email this week.

“During this highly symbolic and technologically complex transition, the country has boosted the physical and cybersecurity of its energy systems,” he said.

Disconnections from the IPS/UPS transmission system managed by the Brell contract begin on Saturday morning in Lithuania and end in Estonia. Baltic countries will run joint frequency and voltage tests over the weekend to “evaluate the procedural and technical measures of Baltic countries to maintain their ability to deal with frequency and independently,” said grid operator Elelling. .

The asynchronous process is completed on Sunday afternoons when the Baltic countries connect and synchronize the grids and connect and synchronize with the continental network of Europe known as the Continental Europe or UCTE Synchronous Grid.

Latvian Minister of Climate and Energy Caspers Melnis said, “In complex geopolitical conditions, society is more vulnerable and “complex geopolitical conditions” as the date set for the conclusion of the same period. He stated that there have already been attempts to spread misinformation about the switchover. The project gets closer and encounters misleading information. ”

“Therefore, we generally encourage people to treat information critically. Instead of falling into an emotionally charged declaration, we don’t share unverified news,” he says, a Latvian grid operator. It was mentioned in a comment posted on the AST website.

Synchronization with the rest of the continent is extremely important to Balticus, “is aiming to maintain and control the grid, ensure stability and not rely on the actions of our neighbors,” he said. added.

There is a clear relief about future synchronization among energy operators in the Baltic Sea. Grid Operator AST features a countdown on its website to “Baltic Energy Independence.”