Less than three years later, he was traded by the team that won the Super Bowl. Eleven months ago, the Broncos benched him, ultimately absorbing the largest dead cap hit in NFL history.
And come March, Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson could be the crown jewel of the free agent quarterback class.
A weak free agent base and a weak draft base create interesting supply and demand questions for the league at its most important position. And Wilson, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent after this season, may have some options.
Wilson, 36, is currently playing in Pittsburgh on a one-year, $1.21 million veteran minimum contract, thanks to the Broncos paying Wilson $39 million. The Steelers also have Justin Fields, who is in the final year of his rookie contract and will also become an unrestricted free agent in March.
The Steelers are notorious for not negotiating during the season, so there’s no chance someone’s extension will happen until after the season. And there is a desire within the company to not only keep Wilson, but also Fields.
The reality is that teams will probably have to make selections in the offseason, and conventional wisdom suggests the franchise will choose the player they selected to start with a healthy Fields when the team was 4-2.
But if a recent survey of NFL executives is any indication, the market for Wilson will be difficult to grasp. In an NFL version of a Rorschach test, text messages were posted around the league asking for Wilson’s expected average annual contract value.
Executive 1: “A lot depends on how he finishes the season and how Pittsburgh views him. Geno (Smith) will cost ($25 million) if he makes some noise in the playoffs. . If he gains momentum late, he’ll be the go-between.” /backup at ($10-12 million). ” Executive 2: “I think he could get more than a top backup/bridge QB contract ($8 million to $10 million), but that’s not the case.” One executive who set Wilson’s average salary said, “Jimmy. Someone would pay him ($20 million) to be a true starter like (Garoppolo) or Geno.” The value is $10 million. Executive 4: “($25 million to $30 million). Fair value would be in that range.” Executive 5: “($28 million to $32 million). They put a year of fluff on the backend to make it look good.” Executive 6: “($30 million to $35 million).” Executive 7: “Probably ($30 million to $35 million). It’s a similar deal to Baker Mayfield. They could win that division with him as a starter and get out of the wild-card round.”
That’s it! NFL executives who make these types of decisions expect Wilson to make between $10 million and $35 million annually in his next contract.
The $10 million contract will mirror Sam Darnold’s current contract with the Vikings. Darnold, a 27-year-old former No. 3 overall pick, threw just 46 passes last year as San Francisco’s backup before signing with the Vikings for a backup role.
Smith’s contract with Wilson’s old team averages $25 million per year. And Mayfield, who signed with the Buccaneers in the offseason, has an average annual salary of $33 million.
Smith and Mayfield finished the season with Comeback Player of the Year types, with Smith actually winning the award. Wilson is 4-1 and started Sunday’s game against the Bengals. He has seven touchdowns and two interceptions in wins over the Jets, Giants, Ravens and Commanders.
Sources noted how much Wilson cares about his image and hinted at his belief that he would not take a below-market contract later in his career.
“I think he has a reputation for being very high maintenance and having a lot to deal with,” he said, adding that he hasn’t seen any team pay him more than $30 million. said a team executive.
This is the fourth veteran contract Wilson has signed in his career. After playing three years of a four-year, $3 million rookie contract, Wilson signed a four-year, $87.6 million extension with the Seahawks in 2015, becoming the highest-paid player in franchise history.
In 2019, Wilson broke his own Seahawks record by signing a four-year extension worth $140 million. Three years later, Seattle traded him to Denver for a draft pick.
The Broncos did not immediately sign Wilson to a new contract at the time of the trade, as the team was in the process of selling him to the Walton Penner ownership group. In the NFL, the Browns just signed Deshaun Watson to a fully guaranteed contract worth $230 million, and there was hope among players, representatives and the union that Wilson could continue that momentum.
Wilson is a Super Bowl-winning quarterback with lifetime on-field earnings of about $200 million, and his new team just traded a farm to acquire him, and that team is one of the best on this side of the world. Owned by one of the richest families. . However, Wilson did not request a fully guaranteed contract and instead signed a five-year, $242.6 million deal with about half of the money guaranteed at the time of signing. Hopes for fully guaranteed NBA and MLB contracts were dashed.
It’s too early to tell what Wilson’s next contract will be beyond the APY. The contract period and guaranteed amount will all be determined in the future.
But a quarter of the league’s Week 1 starters could change next year. The Giants, Jets, Panthers, Raiders, Titans, Browns and Steelers are all among the teams whose quarterback futures are uncertain in 2025.
In addition to Wilson, quarterbacks like Fields, Darnold, Daniel Jones, Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton and Mac Jones are among those set to become free agents in 2025. It is. And two college quarterbacks, Cam Ward and Shedule Sanders, are expected to be first-round picks in April’s draft, which is widely considered.
Meanwhile, the Steelers haven’t had a quarterback more than 10% of their salary cap since coach Ben Roethlisberger’s final season in 2021. Signing Wilson in Pittsburgh would hit that mark in the low $20 million range.
Age doesn’t matter to Wilson, who just turned 36 this week. However, with a solid showing this season, there could be a market for Wilson both inside and outside of Pittsburgh.
