After September’s results, it’s hard to expect another strong month for stock prices. The final month of the third quarter was surprisingly strong for investors. Stocks are often considered the weakest month of the year, but major market averages were on track to close solidly higher as of Friday, helped by the Federal Reserve’s big interest rate cuts last week. Riding. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both hit new highs this month. The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above $42,000 for the first time in history, with other indexes similarly rising above $5,700. However, according to CNBC Pro, which analyzed historical market data dating back to 1950, the S&P 500 Index has recorded an average daily fluctuation of 1.3%, and investors are looking forward to October, when the stock market is at its most volatile. is nervous. As a result, traders have to weather a historically bad month for stocks (usually worse in US presidential election years) and contrarian sentiment that has many worried about a market pullback or even a correction. . The outlook for U.S. stocks next month looks tenuous at best, given rising geopolitical risks from conflicts in the Middle East and war in Europe, as well as the possibility of further rifts in the domestic labor market. “Can the SPX avoid the typically weak two months of the election cycle calendar?” Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technologist at BTIG, said this week, referring to the S&P 500 index. “It’s low.” he asked. Nevertheless, the stock as of Friday was on track for a strong month and strong quarter. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 are both expected to rise 1.5% in September, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.7%. On a quarterly basis, the blue-chip Dow outperformed, rising more than 7%. The S&P 500 index rose more than 5%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index rose more than 1%. Risk of “biased” employment statistics The biggest factor that could affect prices in October is the employment statistics for September, which will be released one week later. Investors are focused on the strength of the labor market, especially after the latest key inflation numbers released on Friday showed once again that the Fed may be winning the fight against price pressures. There is. “As simple as it sounds, I think it comes down to the labor market data,” Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, said of the near-term direction of the stock market. The U.S. economy is expected to add 150,000 jobs this month, up from 142,000 in August, according to estimates from FactSet. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.2%. Turnquist said a weak jobs report could weigh on stocks, casting doubt on investors’ hopes for a soft landing — where growth slows and inflation eases but the economy avoids recession. I am concerned. On the other hand, the impact on stocks of a stronger or expected report is likely to be more muted, he said. Seasonal Weakness Even as stocks hit new records in late September and bulls are firmly in control, skeptics have no better time to start putting more money into the market. Waiting for location. They are concerned that the current market is showing signs of exhaustion, given the small number of stocks hitting new highs and the fact that semiconductors, which outperformed the overall market this year, have ceded leadership. are. LPL Financial’s Turnquist said there will probably be a better buying opportunity in October if the S&P 500 retests its September low of 5,400 yen, especially if it falls to its 200-day moving average, which was last around 5,200 yen. I expect to visit. For the S&P 500, these levels represent a decline of about 6% to 9% as of Thursday’s close. The broader index itself was last hovering above 5,700. Similarly, Stock Trader’s Almanac editor Jeff Hirsch said he expects the S&P 500 index could fall 5% to 10% in the coming weeks, but is bullish through the end of the year. Hirsch said after removing some of the uncertainty from investors’ minds, he wouldn’t be surprised if 6,000 is a “reasonable” level and the broader index hits new all-time highs. “I’m hoping to get quite long soon,” he said. Week Ahead Calendar All Time (ET). Monday, September 30, 2024 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI (September) 10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed Index (September) 1:55 p.m. Speaks on economic outlook at next meeting Nashville Earnings: Carnival Tuesday, October 1, 2024 9:45 a.m. S&P PMI Manufacturing Final Report (September) 10:00 a.m. Construction Expenditures (August) 10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing ( September) 10am JOLTS Jobs (August) Revenue: Lamb Weston, Nike, McCormick & Co. Wednesday, October 2, 2024 8:15am ADP Employment Survey (September) Revenue: Conagra Brands 2024 Thursday, October 3, 2019 8:30 a.m. Continuing unemployment insurance claims (09/21) 8:30 a.m. Initial claims (09/28) 9:45 a.m. Final PMI total (September) 9:45 a.m. Minutes S&P PMI Service SA Final Value (September) 10am Durable Orders (August) 10am Factory Orders (August) 10am ISM Service PMI (September) ) Revenue: Constellation Brands October 2024 Friday the 4th 8:30 a.m. Preliminary hourly wage figures (September) 8:30 a.m. Preliminary weekly average number of workers (September) 8:30 a.m. Number of manufacturing industry employees (September) 8:30 a.m. Number of employees in the non-agricultural sector (September) 8:30 a.m. Labor participation rate (September) 8:30 a.m. Number of employees in the private non-agricultural sector (September) 8:30 a.m. Unemployment rate (September) — CNBC’s Nick Wells contributed to this report
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