On the day of the inauguration ceremony, President Trump threatened a sudden new tariff on major US trade partners. He may be ready to deliver now.
On Thursday, Trump repeatedly threatened this month to publish 25 % tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Immediately on February 1stTell the elliptical office reporter, “It may rise over time or not.” He had previously warned China May face 10 % of tariffs。
Economist warns the harsh tariffs You can wake up US inflation Various consumer goods and economic growth are slow. What experts have to say are:
Why is Trump threatening the country with tariffs?
Trump is threatening tariffs on multiple countries for various reasons. He said specifically Targeting Canada in Mexico -The US largest trading partner -along with China, there is a tariff that is forced to stop the flow of unwritten immigrants and illegal drugs in the United States and narrow the trade surplus with the United States.
The US trade deficit with Canada has risen from $ 31 billion in 2019 to $ 72 billion in 2023, reflecting the increase in Canadian energy imports. During the same period, the gap with Mexico was $ 1061 billion to reduce imports from China from $ 106 billion in 2019 and bring more electronic items, shoes, and other products from the south of the border. It has increased.
Before Trump returned to the government, he again 60 % of Chinese products Experts imported to the United States say that it aims to promote US profits by negotiating better trade conditions with Beijing.
A show in a way that his administration uses tariff threats for pressure to pressure on other issues, and Mr. Trump is 25 % of Colombia, unless he agrees to be expelled from the abroad last week. Was proposed. Colombia agree to finally receive immigrants, The tariff was refrained.
Colombia’s face suggests that Canada and Mexico can reach the United States and avoid painful trade wars. For that, Howard Lutonic, a candidate for Mr. Trump, said on Wednesday confirming that Canada and Mexico would be able to avoid tariffs by closing borders on Fentanil.
“As far as I know, they are acting quickly, and if they do it, there will be no customs duties,” Lutonic told the Senator.
Nevertheless, Mr. Trump’s potential tariff branding emphasizes the willingness to use strict trade measures to punish the nearest allies, unless they are imposed. 。
“As I mentioned earlier, trade policy will be traded in the next four years, and there are protectionists used to force trade, immigrants, and other political concessions,” Ey-PARTHENONonononononononononononononononononononononononon. Gregory Daco, Chief Economist, states in the survey notebook.
What is Trump’s plan exactly?
In addition to targeting Canada and Mexico, the Trump administration has emerged in Asia, South America, Europe and other countries in various countries. However, it is unknown whether the tariffs can be expanded on Saturdays, simply suggested, how they are structured, and whether they can propose a possible timeline to implement them.
Bretto House, a professor at Colombia Business School, told the CBS Money Watch. “Eventually, there are many things that are announced by the president in social media. The storm will be the most aggressive and soon the most pursued.”
In contrast, what is clear is that the new administration has taken up in his first term in his first term when using trade policies as a means of both economic and foreign policy. John Rush, vice president of the product strategy of the supply chain software company E2OPEN, said it would be more likely to lead to uncertainty and volatility.
“Many options are still possible,” Daco told CBS Moneywatch in an interview. “I don’t know, but the theory theory suggests that the president will carry out customs duties to Mexico and Canada in some way -about imports from the two countries, not the blanket tariffs .. Otherwise, his bluff was called.
Regarding how quickly the tariff is, Dako points out that Mr. Trump can move quickly. Authority based on the law of 1977 It is known as the International Emergency Economic Law.
“When he says that he will impose tariffs on February 1, it is an open problem about whether the means will be used. You will immediately raise duties, as you was threatened by Colombia on the weekend. Do you want to do it, or the deadline to get concession?
Does the United States face retaliation?
Almost certainly, economists say. If Trump’s officials advanced to the northern neighbors with tariffs, he said in the email, “Canada will be able to deal with 25 % of the US imports, and that Canada will respond in the actual thing.”
According to AP News, Doug Ford, the Prime Minister of Ontario, had previously pledged to remove American -made alcoholic beverages from Canadian stores. Canada is the second largest market in the United States, after the European Union, in the United States.
ELIJAH OLIVEROS-ROSEN, the ELIJAH OLIVEROS-ROSEN, the S & P Global Ratings Chief E-Market Economist, predicts that Mexico will also fire with target tariffs. “In the case of Mexico, I think the government is very unlikely to have tariffs on US -made imports. In most cases, the Mexican government is agriculture and food, considering that it will eventually export to the United States. We expect tariffs to impose imports, but not manufacturing. “
Mr. Trump states that strengthening US trade issues will protect American workers and revive domestic manufacturing. According to Douglas Irwin, a US trade policy expert and professor of economics at the Dartmas University, this policy has been sacrificed that it will impair important relationships with other countries around the world. He said there was a possibility.
What is the risk of American consumers?
Irwin and other economists say they are almost convinced that customs duties will lead to higher prices for US consumers. This is because companies that reach the hook usually give additional costs to consumers to protect profits.
“The concept of this administration is a bit surprising. If tariffs are gradually implemented over time, such as the 5 % increment, these are the belief that these are less inflation,” DACO was CBS Moneywatch. I talked. “This idea is misplaced. Because if you have an increase in the monthly increase, if there is something that leads to higher inflation, it will lead to higher inflation every month.”
According to an analysis from Capital Economics, if Trump’s tariff is fully implemented, including a universal 10 % tax on all products, the inflation rate of consumer prices can rise by 3 % to 4 %. I have sex. Certainly, the analyst of the investment advisory company hopes that Trump stops imposing a blanket tariff and instead chooses a goal.
Matthew Holmes, a public policy officer of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, suggested that volleyball between countries also affected US consumers.
“Pumps, grocery stores, and higher costs at online check -outs have customs duties cascading the economy and damaging consumers and companies on both sides of the border. This is a loss,” he said. I did it.
Contributed to this report.
