US President Donald Trump will meet Ukrainian President Voldymir Zelensky at the White House on February 28, 2025.
Brian Snyder | Reuters
Following the epic dropout between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian leader Voldy Zelensky, US aid to Ukraine has been suspended, putting the country in a very unstable situation, defense strategists say.
Anonymous White House officials and US officials told CNBC’s partner network NBC News that military assistance had halted while an assessment of the situation took place.
“The president makes it clear that he is focused on peace. Partners should also commit to that goal. We are suspending and reviewing aid to make sure it contributes to the solution,” authorities confirmed with NBC News and other media.
Neither the White House nor Ukraine publicly commented on the statement. CNBC has been in touch with us on both confirmation of the movement and further comments, waiting for a response.
If confirmed, this move is unprecedented but not surprising given the extraordinary spat between leaders in the oval office on Friday. President Zelensky hastily set off the White House, with billions of dollars of vital minerals signed.
The defense strategist says that if the US immediately withdraws all military support for Ukraine, the outlook is undoubtedly negative if a continuous flow of weapons and munitions is needed to fight Russia after already three years of war.
“This decision is not about economics. Russia is willing to make peace deals and is fundamentally driven by Trump’s view that Ukraine is the only obstacle,” said Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director of the defense think tank RUSI, on Tuesday, responding to the suspension of US military aid.
“However, there is no evidence that Russia is ready to accept the deal. What is that? This decision will encourage Putin to seek more, including demilitarization and neutrality in Ukraine,” he commented in an email.
Chalmers pointed out that the “nightmare scenario” is now that the US and Russia will soon announce the deal, then tell Ukraine and Europe to “take it or leave it.”
“More importantly, the UK and Europe are ready to support Ukraine against the US. Recent estimates show that only 20% of the total military hardware supplied to the Ukrainian military is produced from Ukraine home from Ukraine, with 25% from Europe and the world at 25% from Europe and the world at 25%, while 20% are the most rental and Adaps is not a coincidence. It’s cumulative,” he said.
Donald Trump (L) and Russian Vladimir Putin arrive to attend a joint press conference after a meeting at the Presidential Palace in Helsinki on July 16, 2018.
Yuri Kadobnov | AFP | Getty Images
The Kremlin said on Tuesday that it had already responded to the news and hoped that the result would be encouraged by Ukraine to seek a peace deal.
“Of course, we still need to learn more. But if this is true, the decision could actually push the Kiev regime towards the peace process, news chief Dmitry Peskov told reporters Tuesday.
“Is Ukraine destined now?”
He raised doubts about whether the Trump administration could stop immediate military aid shipping, saying “yes, at least in part” earlier this week.
“The bad news is that US funds for military aid to Ukraine are currently running out. The good news is that a steady stream of American equipment continues to flow to Ukraine from previously announced commitments.
“Drawdown equipment is still being shipped. The Trump administration can direct shipments to halt despite announcements from the previous administration,” they noted.
“The more difficult thing is to stop shipping of newly produced weapons from contracts signed with the defense industry, but with funds provided by the US, they belong to Ukraine,” he said.
That claim will extend to that, but they noted that the Trump administration has not hesitated to use emergency authorities “for political goals.”
On February 24, 2025, in Kiev, Ukraine, we will gather at the Independence Square in downtown Kiev to commemorate those killed in Russia.
Danylo Antoniuk |Anadoru | Getty Images
They concluded that what happens on the battlefield in the future will depend heavily on the amount of equipment delivered.
“The bottom line: Ukraine’s outlook is bleak. At its best, US and European aid continues. This is enough for Ukraine to stabilize its frontline, slow Russian attacks and buy time for negotiated settlements.
“In the worst case, the US cuts off cargo on equipment. What Ukraine receives from Europeans, other world sources, and its own industry involves a decline in capacity. The Russian attacks will gain more and more territory.
Military aid status
The status of military aid to Ukraine is unclear, with some funds being “committed” or “mandatory” but “not yet spent.” As equipment takes time to produce, there may be a long delay between the obligation and payment stage, and manufacturers will receive progress payments over time as equipment is delivered, CSIS strategists say.
Ukrainian soldiers prepare vehicles adapted to helicopter shells on August 19, 2024, as the Russian-Ukrainian war continues in the direction of Torretsk, Ukraine.
Anadoru | Anadoru | Getty Images
It is vague about what funds and support are allocated between Trump and his European allies, whether military, humanitarian or financial aid given to Ukraine.
The Kiel Institute for the World Economic Research, widely seen as accurate and impartial source tracking funds in Ukraine, thus summarizing the photos of the aid in its latest assessment in February.
“Europe has clearly surpassed the United States in terms of Ukrainian aid. In total, Europe has allocated 70 billion euros ($73.6 billion) in financial and humanitarian aid and 62 billion euros in military aid.
Can Europe enter into violations?
Tensions between Washington and Kiev have been steadily rising since Trump took office in January. Furthermore, when the United States began preliminary consultations with Russia, except Ukraine, for the road to peace.
Trump had already threatened to withdraw US support for war-torn countries if Zelensky fails to sign the coveted important mineral contract.
European leaders are scrambling quickly to discuss what role they can play in Ukraine and what kind of continued support they can gain in postwar scenarios that could thrust the country.
The Bullock appears to be ready to announce plans on Tuesday to increase defense spending that could potentially mobilise as much as 800 billion euros to close the gap in US defence spending with European Commission’s Ursula von der Reyen.
“Europe is ready to significantly increase defence spending, both to address the short-term urgency to support Ukraine, but also to address the long-term needs of taking on more responsibility for our own European security,” she said at a press conference.
British Prime Minister Kiel Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are British President Emmanuel Macron, President Voldymey Zelensky, after holding a meeting at the summit at Lancaster House, England on March 2, 2025.
Justin Talis | Via Reuters
However, given the obvious exclusion of Kiev and Europe from early discussions on how to end the war, the outlook for what Europe’s role is appears to be uncertain, as there is no security guarantee written by the US for Ukraine.
If the US halts shipping all military aid to Ukraine, the move actually puts the ball in European courts, to what extent, how will it be willing to step into violations to help Ukraine.
CSIS strategists emphasize that the US is not Ukraine’s only equipment supplier.
“As calculated by the German Kiel Institute, Ukraine’s European military aid was comparable to US European military aid, at around $1.8 billion per month. European aid was particularly important in the second half of 2023 and early 2024 when the US ran out of funds while discussing its next aid package,” he said.
“The European Union has also approved the use of Russian sovereign assets frozen to support Ukraine’s military needs. The bad news is that Europeans are supplying as much as possible given the deteriorating state of the defense industry.
