last day of 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season is Nov. 30, but as it approaches that goal, the Caribbean has other ideas, and a potential tropical system is brewing.
The National Hurricane Center announced Wednesday afternoon that a potential Tropical Cyclone 19 had formed in the western Caribbean Sea. When it reaches the strength of a tropical cyclone, it is named Sarah. Hurricane and tropical storm watches are in effect for parts of Honduras and Nicaragua.
The storm is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm by Thursday, the Hurricane Center said. It is expected to approach the northern coast of Honduras late Friday and potentially stall over the weekend, bringing the possibility of life-threatening flash flooding to the Central American country.
CBS News
Hurricane hunters are scheduled to fly into the area Thursday to assess the strength and structure of the developing weather system.
A low pressure system existed in the western Caribbean, creating favorable conditions for the formation of a tropical system. Predictive models take in current environmental factors along with historical data to calculate a “spaghetti plot” of where the system tracks. Each model uses different calculations. This explains how the prediction track is the consensus output from those models.
CBS News
The strength of this system depends on factors such as how much fuel it has, whether it is in a favorable environment such as being over warm seas, low wind shear, and no fronts blocking it; It depends on how long you stay there. Regardless of its strength, forecast models say it will remain in the western Caribbean through the weekend, then turn north and enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week.
CBS News
The consensus among forecast models is that after entering the Gulf Coast, it will make a right turn toward Florida by late next week.
A lot can happen between now and next week, and conditions can change quickly, but areas such as Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should prepare for heavy rain over the next few days. Floridians should continue to monitor the forecast as updates come in.
