The seed No. 9, breaking No. 8 seed, is technically upset, but in most cases the two teams are equally consistent as the seeds suggest.
As you can imagine, the number 9 seed that won the game in the NCAA tournament is the most common among low-seeded seed and seed matchups. No. since the tournament expanded in 1985. The 9th seed actually holds a slight head-to-head edge with an 81-75 record.
Last season, No. The 9th seed went 3-1 in the first round of brackets. If it happens again this year, they will be considered a minor upset in the betting market.
Disassemble the matchup and determine which No. 9 seed should be the best chance to elicit agitation and the eight seeds to pencil in the second round of the bracket.
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9 vs 8 upset ranking
These are ordered from the least likely to the most likely.
4. Clayton on Louisville
I really love this matchup for Louisville. The Cardinals were the first tournament bet I handed out on the Sportsline.
Louisville has only lost twice since December 14th, with one of them coming to No. 1 Duke in the ACC Tournament Championship last week. Clayton thought playing at the Down Big East Conference was a bit overrated all year round. The Blue Jays hope Louisville will struggle very hard with athleticism and ball pressure defense.
It’s an 8-9 game, so I give Clayton the longest possibility to get upset, but anything happens.
3. Oklahoma, Connecticut
Most people are in two defending champions and I get it. But I just don’t think the husky is very good.
Both of these teams have some big edges on paper. Oklahoma will have to reach a one-ton foul line, and the Sooners 3-point shooter can get plenty of open looks against UConn’s poor boundary defense.
Husky, on the other hand, needs to dominate the attacking board and get a bucket that’s easy enough to paint. If UConn security guards can protect basketball, the Husky will have many offensive success against the SEC-lit Oklahoma defense.
I’ve made a little strategy here using brackets. I consider this an even matchup, but I know that UConn will become a popular pick in the bracket pool. I went on a paradoxical route and took Oklahoma to a slight upset.
2. Gonzaga’s Georgia
Gonzaga is another team that will become a popular pick. However, this is not an easy match for the Bulldogs. I nailed them as a potential sleeper for the second weekend if they got a better draw.
The reason I made this game No. 2 is because Gonzaga has been overrated all season. The Bulldogs’ best victory is over Baylor, San Diego, Indiana and St. Mary’s, three of whom will come in November.
Georgia has proven he can beat Florida and Kentucky and hang alongside the best teams in the country. The Bulldogs also lost by just two points at their Auburn home. I will tilt Gonzaga in this matchup, but that’s not easy. Georgia can slow down the pace and sneak up with ugly victory.
1. Baylor in Mississippi
We put this match up first as it could be the most even game in the first round. Both Baylor and Mississippi State can score, and both teams can give up many points.
This game will likely come down to rebound and 3-point shooting. Mississippi has a big advantage over the offensive commission, but Baylor’s border shooters light up one of the worst three-point defenses in the country.
Although Baylor loved entering the season, the Bears never put it together, starting with a loss blown away by opener Gonzaga. Maybe they get a second life with brackets.
In an even game, I give the No. 9 Seed Bears a slight edge to move forward.
