Ireland is voting on Friday in parliamentary elections to decide the next government. The election will show whether Ireland bucks the global trend of incumbents being ousted by disaffected voters after years of a pandemic, international instability and a squeeze on the cost of living.
Voting began at 7am. Ireland’s 3.8 million voters elect 174 members to the Dáil.
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Here we look at the parties, the issues, and the likely outcome.
who is running?
The outgoing government was led by Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, the two political parties that have dominated Irish politics for the past century. They have similar centre-right policies, but are long-standing rivals with origins on opposite sides of the Irish Civil War in the 1920s.
After the 2020 election ended in a virtual dead heat, they agreed to form a coalition government, share cabinet positions and take turns as prime minister. Fianna Fail leader Michael Martin served as prime minister for the first half of his term, and was succeeded by Fine Gael’s Leo Varadkar in December 2022. Mr Varadkar abruptly resigned in March, handing over the job to current Prime Minister Simon Harris.
Opposition party Sinn Féin made an astonishing breakthrough in the 2020 election, taking the top spot in the popular vote, but Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have decided to join forces due to their left-wing policies and historical ties to the extremist group the Irish Republican Army. Because he refused, he was excluded from the government. Amid 30 years of violence in Northern Ireland.
Under Ireland’s proportional representation system, each of the 43 constituencies elects a number of MPs, and voters rank their preferences. This makes it relatively easy for small parties and independent candidates with strong local support to win seats.
Chairwoman Caroline Sharkey and Garda Garda Ronan Steed tend to ballot boxes being taken by boat to Gola Island as voters head to cast their votes in the 2024 Irish General Election on Friday, November 29, 2024. (AP Photo/Peter Morrison)
The race includes a number of independent candidates, from local campaigners to far-right activists to renowned crime boss Jerry the Monk Hutch.
What are the main issues?
As in many other countries, the cost of living, particularly housing, is at the center of the campaign. Ireland is facing a severe housing shortage, the result of a failure to build enough new homes during the Celtic Tiger boom and the economic downturn following the 2008 global financial crisis.
Johnmark McCafferty, chief executive of housing and homelessness charity Threshold, said: “During the crisis there were no buildings, but once the crisis receded, offices and hotels were the first thing built.”
As a result, home prices are rising, rents are rising, and homelessness is increasing.
McCafferty said that after 10 years of economic growth, “Ireland has the resources”, especially the 13 billion euros ($13.6 billion) in unpaid taxes that the European Union ordered Apple to pay, but “there is no history. “We are trying to address a major infrastructure deficit.”
Intertwined with the housing issue is immigration, a fairly recent challenge for a country long defined by immigration. Recent arrivals include more than 100,000 Ukrainians displaced by war and thousands more fleeing poverty and conflict in the Middle East and Africa.
The country of 5.4 million people is struggling to accommodate all the asylum seekers, with tent camps and makeshift accommodation being opened, sparking tensions and protests. A year ago, an Algerian man was charged with stabbing children to death outside a school in Dublin, sparking the worst violence in Ireland in decades.
Unlike many European countries, Ireland does not have a strong far-right party, but far-right voices on social media are trying to stir up hostility towards immigrants, and anti-immigrant independent candidates are gaining traction in some constituencies. I want an election in The issue appears to be taking a toll on Sinn Féin’s support, with working-class supporters furious over its pro-immigration policies.
What are the possible outcomes?
Opinion polls show that voters are split evenly between Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, Sinn Féin, several smaller parties and independents.
Fine Gael ran a gaffe-filled election campaign, Fianna Fail held strong in the opinion polls, and Sinn Féin, although strong, is unlikely to rule unless other parties object to co-operation. It is said that the chances of acquiring it are low.
Analysts say the most likely outcome is another coalition between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, with perhaps a smaller party or an independent as kingmaker.
Eoin O’Malley, a political scientist at Dublin City University, said: “The question now is which minority groups will be the ones supporting the government.” “Coalition formation is essentially giving shades to the same centrist government each time.”
When will I know the results?
The poll ends on Friday at 10pm (10pm GMT), with exit polls providing the first hint of the outcome. Vote counting will begin Saturday morning. Full results will take several days, and a government could be formed in the days or weeks after that.
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Mr Harris, who voted in Delgany, south Dublin, said Irish voters and politicians had “a long few days ahead of us”.
“I think the beauty and complexity of our system is that when the clock strikes 10 o’clock tonight, the exit polls will be taken and we won’t even know the outcome of the election,” he said.
