Oregon State, Georgia, Miami State and BYU lead the way for the first projected College Football Playoff spots for the 2024 season. The first round of the CFP rankings were released Tuesday, giving the nation a first look at how the College Football Playoff selection committee will evaluate the field under the new 12-team format.
In these rankings, Big Ten foes No. 1 Oregon State and No. 2 Ohio State took the top two spots. But while the Buckeyes will earn the No. 5 seed, the Ducks are expected to earn the Big Ten’s automatic bid and first-round bye as conference champions. This clears the way for No. 3 Georgia to take the No. 2 seed with No. 4 Miami and No. 9 BYU shutting out the top spot. Group of Five champion Boise State is projected to finish 12th in both rankings and seeding.
This first bracket includes four teams each from the Big Ten and SEC. Only one team each from the ACC and Big 12 is expected to participate. Big Ten and SEC powerhouses Ohio State, Texas, Penn State and Tennessee are expected to host first-round games.
Admittedly, this bracket is a protrusion at this point. Although the top four seeds won’t be officially chosen until each team actually wins a conference championship, this marks perhaps the biggest change to the College Football Playoff from four teams to 12 teams.
Here’s a first look at the College Football Playoff bracket after the first CFP rankings.
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Big 12 will be the biggest loser
The Big 12’s path to two teams in the field became even more difficult when Iowa State lost to Texas Tech in Week 10. After the initial CFP rankings, the Big 12 is almost certainly locked in with only one bid no matter what happens, and also risks missing out on a bye.
BYU finished ninth in the rankings despite wins over No. 13 SMU and No. 19 Kansas State, which is ahead of the top four teams (Indiana, Tennessee, Penn State, and Texas). more wins for the top 25 than total. Although the Cougars are undefeated, they are almost treated like a one-loss team. In fact, they sit behind five losing teams.
Additionally, Iowa State, the actual one-loss team in the Big 12, languishes in 17th place behind four two-loss teams in the SEC alone. At least four teams in the Big 12 remain eligible for the CFP through automatic conference championship bids. But BYU is ranked No. 9 and will likely sit out the field altogether if it loses in the Big 12 title game.
Boise State University is respected.
The CFP selection committee has historically tended to rate Group 5 teams a little lower, but gave Boise State some support for its strong performance thus far. The Broncos were originally ranked 12th in the rankings, well ahead of Group of Five contenders and undefeated No. 25 Army, and are on the verge of competing for a bye.
The Broncos had a quality win over No. 21 Washington State, but their only loss came at the buzzer against No. 1 Oregon State. The fifth conference champion will qualify higher than the 12th seed if they finish 12th or higher, giving Boise State a serious chance to compete for a higher spot.
Elimination game is coming
There are four SEC teams between No. 11 and No. 16 in the original CFP rankings (No. 11 Alabama, No. 14 Texas A&M, No. 15 LSU, and No. 16 Ole Miss). Both have important matchups that could lead to extinction. their candidacy. LSU and Alabama play this week, while Ole Miss hosts Georgia. Texas A&M has reignited their rivalry with a big game against No. 5 Texas at the end of the year.
It has been thought that a 9-3 SEC team could compete, but with the expected congestion in 2024, that seems highly unlikely. Undefeated Indiana and BYU will only further complicate matters, with three Big Ten teams essentially already punched in the ticket. Both teams with two losses cannot afford more losses given the circumstances.
