Week 5 was another strong showing for the NFL. The Baltimore Ravens defeated the Cincinnati Bengals in an epic shootout, the Arizona Cardinals upset the 49ers in San Francisco, and Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears dropped 36 points to the Carolina Panthers.
Last week, I highlighted the underrated Denver Broncos defense, which was crucial in securing their third straight win against the Las Vegas Raiders. I also tried to put Jaden Daniels’ greatness into perspective, so I wasn’t surprised to see him completely defeat the Cleveland Browns, 34-13, last weekend. Justin Fields was another player I had my eye on, but he didn’t have the best game Sunday night against the Dallas Cowboys, losing 20-17. Will the Pittsburgh Steelers give Russell Wilson a chance at quarterback?
This week, I want to talk about whether struggling AFC teams are hopeless, power ranking the NFL’s best division through five weeks, and how underdog teams have found great success.
Are Bengals cooked?
The Bengals are currently 1-4 after losing in overtime to the rival Ravens. Unfortunately, fans are used to slow starts for Joe Burrow and company, but is it about time to hit Cincy’s panic button?
The 41-38 OT loss to Baltimore didn’t feel like a typical “AFC North loss.” His 79 total points were the most in series history, and his 962 yards of total offense and nine passing touchdowns were the most in an NFL game this season. Burrow scored a career-high five touchdowns on Sunday. Previously, quarterbacks who threw for at least five points won 18 straight games.
It’s clear that the Bengals’ offense is on a roll. Burrow threw for 392 yards with just nine missed passes, five touchdowns, and one interception, Ja’Marr Chase caught 10 passes for 193 yards and two touchdowns, and Tee Higgins caught nine passes for 83 yards and two scores as well. . Typically, if all your stars fill up the stat sheet with 442 yards of total offense, you can expect to win. Unfortunately for the Bengals, that wasn’t the case.
This defense needs to play better if the Bengals want to make the playoffs. Through five weeks, this unit ranks seventh worst in the NFL in yards allowed (365.4 yards per game) and second worst in scoring defense (29 yards allowed per game). The Ravens scored on all four second-half possessions Sunday, allowing them to erase a double-digit deficit.
Injuries are also a big problem for the Bengals defense. Defensive end Cam Sample tore his Achilles tendon before the start of the regular season, and cornerback Dax Hill just tore his ACL on Sunday. Defensive linemen Myles Murphy, McKinley Jackson, and B.J. Hill have been out with injuries this year, which has led to Cincy’s run defense being the third-worst in the NFL (151.4 rushing yards per game). However, Sheldon Rankins is still absent. Due to a hamstring injury.
Only six teams have made the playoffs after an 0-3 start, most recently the Houston Texans in 2018. But there’s reason to believe the Bengals can bounce back. As an example, Tankathon says the Bengals have the seventh-easiest remaining schedule. Next up for the Bengals are the New York Giants and Browns. Both matches are still in progress and are definitely winnable. Burrow went 9-15-1 in games 1-5 of his career and 21-11 the rest of the season.
SportsLine data scientist Stephen Orr says the Bengals currently have a 17.7% chance of making the playoffs. He believes 10 AFC teams have a better chance of making the playoffs, including the Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars and Broncos. But if you go to Caesars Sportsbook, the Bengals are just 150 points away from making the playoffs and +125 points away from making the postseason. Hmm…
So, was Bengal cooked? No, not yet. But if Lou Anarumo doesn’t get his defense in order, the days of Burrow, Chase and Higgins may be over.
NFC North Rankings
The NFC North is the best division in the NFL through five weeks. It’s the only division in which each team has a winning record, with the Minnesota Vikings leading the way at 5-0. The Detroit Lions have only lost one of their four games, but the Bears have now won two in a row, with Jordan Love picking up his first win of the 2024 season at the Green Bay Packers last week.
How do we rank these teams from 1 to 4?
1. Vikings (5-0): Give credit where credit is due. Minnesota is 5-0 for the first time since 2016, but has been trailed by a total of 3:26 this season. This is the third-lowest time difference for any team through five games since 2000. Here’s another pretty wild statistic. The Vikings became the fourth team in the Super Bowl era to win four straight against teams above .500 without falling behind. Sam Darnold is the fourth Vikings quarterback to win the first five games of the season, joining Brett Favre, Dante Culpepper, and Fran Tarkenton, and Aaron Jones has been effective on the ground; Justin Jefferson still looks like the best wide receiver in the NFL. Brian Flores’ defense allows the fourth-best 15.2 points per game.
2. Lions (3-1): The Lions have the best offense in the league. David Montgomery and Jahmil Gibbs are a top running back tandem, Sam LaPorta is already one of the NFL’s top pass-catching tight ends, and Jared Goff has the talents of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. There are a few receivers out there. Detroit can score more points than any team, but this defense still ranks in the bottom 11 in the NFL. The Lions are a strong contender for the Super Bowl, but the secondary has to play better.
3. Packers (3-2): Maybe the Packers aren’t the Super Bowl sleepers many imagined, but it’s still early in the year. Love has now thrown at least two touchdowns in seven consecutive games, tied with Joe Flacco for the NFL’s longest active streak, and Xavier McKinney is the first to throw at least two touchdowns since the 1970 merger. He became the first player to record an interception in each game. Along with his new team. Next up for the Packers are the pesky Cardinals.
4. Bears (3-2): Williams, the No. 1 overall pick, has clearly improved. He is the first Bears rookie quarterback to win three of his first five starts since Craig Krenzel in 2004, and he is the first Bears rookie quarterback to win three of his first five starts this year. He has as many 300-yard passing games as he has. Last week against the Panthers, Williams completed all four of his pass attempts with throws of at least 15 air yards, half of which resulted in touchdowns. The Bears have the NFL’s longest active home winning streak at eight games, and their defense ranks fifth in points allowed per game (17).
big loser biting hard
There is something that I would like everyone to note here. I’m sure we’ve all heard the phrase “any Sunday”, but this year it was especially true.
Despite being without star wideout Malik Nabors, the Giants traveled across the country and upset the Seattle Seahawks, who were expected to win by a touchdown. It also saw Kyler Murray and the Cardinals defeat the rival 49ers, who trailed by 13 points in the third quarter.
The Giants (+7) and Cardinals (+7.5) both won straight-up as underdogs by 7 or more points. Teams underperforming by 7 points or more have an incredible record of 7 wins and 2 losses (.778) this season, which is the best record by a team underperforming by 7 points or more in a five-week period since 1970. be. For reference, teams with a score of 7 or more won 15 games. 50 people in 2023.
This season has the best straight-up record by an underdog of 4-8 points or more through Week 5 since the 1970 merger, but if you look at those records by an underdog of at least 6 points or more, please.
2024 NFL Underdogs
6 points or more
11-7
7 points or more
7-2
8 points or more
3-1